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Development of a predictive model for the need for early surgery in patients with adhesive small-bowel obstruction

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机构: [1]First Cent Hosp Baoding, Dept Burn & Plast Surg, 320,Changcheng North St, Baoding 071000, Hebei, Peoples R China [2]Nanjing Yimin Hosp, Dept Gen Surg, Nanjing, Peoples R China [3]Hebei Univ, Affiliated Hosp, Radiol Dept, Baoding, Peoples R China
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关键词: Adhesive small bowel obstruction predictive model surgical intervention clinical decision-making scoring system patient outcome

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Objective To develop a predictor of early surgical intervention in patients with adhesive small-bowel obstruction (ASBO), to optimise treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted of patients with ASBO between August 2019 and June 2024. Clinical, laboratory and imaging data were analysed. A scoring system was developed using C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, white blood cell (WBC) count, body mass index (BMI), and imaging findings. Results The developed ASBO surgical score predicted the need for early surgery with a sensitivity of 89.6%, a specificity of 87.3%, and an area under the curve of 0.88. Patients with a score of 5 to 7 were significantly more likely to require surgical management: 75% of these patients underwent surgery, versus 4.2% in the Conservative treatment group. Key predictors of the need for surgery were high CRP concentration (>54.3 nmol/L), high WBC count (>11.0 x 10(9)/L), BMI <22 kg/m(2), maximum small intestinal diameter on computed tomography images >3.85 cm, and free fluid in the abdominal cavity. Conclusions The ASBO surgical score is a practical tool that should aid in the timely identification of patients requiring surgical intervention, and may reduce the risk of complications and improve the outcomes of patients.

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大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 医学:研究与实验 4 区 药学
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Q4 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL Q4 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY

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第一作者机构: [1]First Cent Hosp Baoding, Dept Burn & Plast Surg, 320,Changcheng North St, Baoding 071000, Hebei, Peoples R China
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