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Progression-free survival as surrogate endpoint of overall survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a real-world data and literature-based analysis

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机构: [1]Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. [2]Department of Radiation Oncology, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China. [3]Department of Radiation Oncology, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin, China. [4]Department of Radiation Oncology, Fujian Cancer Hospital/Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, China. [5]Department of Radiation Oncology, Anyang Cancer Hospital, Anyang, China. [6]Department of Radiation Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. [7]Department of Oncology, Tengzhou Central People's Hospital, Tengzhou, China. [8]Department of Radiation Oncology, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China. [9]Department of Radiation Oncology, Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University, Baoding, China. [10]Department of Radiation Oncology, PLA Army General Hospital, Beijing, China. [11]Department of Radiation Oncology, Peking University School of Oncology, Beijing Cancer Hospital and Beijing Institute for Cancer Research, Beijing, P.R. China. [12]Department of Radiation Oncology, Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Ninth School of Clinical Medicine, Peking University, School of Oncology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, P.R. China. [13]Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
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关键词: esophageal cancer overall survival progression-free survival radiotherapy surrogate endpoint

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The surrogacy of progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains unelucidated. This study aimed to determine the validity of PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS in ESCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy or definitive chemoradiotherapy (dRT/dCRT), as well as characterize the prognostic factors and survival of such patients.A total of 3662 patients from 10 cancer centers were enrolled. One-, 2-, and 3-year PFS (PFS12, PFS24, and PSF36, respectively) were used as time points for analysis. At each time point, ESCC-specific mortality and OS were characterized using competing risk and conditional survival models, while correlation between PFS and OS was evaluated by linear regression.At PFS12, PFS24, and PFS36, a progressive decrease in 5-year ESCC-specific mortality (35.2%-13.4%) and increase in 5-year OS (46.6%-62.9%) were observed. Regardless, the OS of patients remained markedly lower than those of the age- and sex-matched Chinese general population. TNM stage remained a significant prognostic factor at PFS36. Strong correlation was found between 3-year PFS and 5-year OS, which was further externally validated.Three-year PFS may act as a potential surrogate endpoint for 5-year OS. TNM stage was considered a significant prognostic factor for OS, and may represent the optimal prognostic tool to guide clinical decision-making and post-treatment follow-up.© The Author(s), 2022.

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出版当年[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
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Q2 ONCOLOGY
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Q2 ONCOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. [2]Department of Radiation Oncology, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China. [*1]Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, No. 17, Panjiayuan South Lane, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100021, China [*2]Department of Radiation Oncology, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, No.12, Health Road, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
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