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Model established based on blood markers predicts overall survival in patients after radical resection of types II and III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction

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机构: [1]Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China [2]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of HeBei University,Baoding 071000, Hebei Province, China [3]Department of Clinical Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032,Anhui Province, China [4]Department of Gastroenterology, Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory ofDigestive Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022,Anhui Province, China [5]Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of AnhuiMedical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China
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关键词: Adenocarcinomas of the esophagogastric junction Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio Prognosis Tumor-node-metastasis

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BACKGROUND In recent years, the incidence of types II and III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) has shown an obvious upward trend worldwide. The prognostic prediction after radical resection of AEG has not been well established. AIM To establish a prognostic model for AEG (types II and III) based on routine markers. METHODS A total of 355 patients who underwent curative AEG at The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2014 to June 2015 were retrospectively included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors. A nomogram was constructed based on Cox proportional hazards models. The new score models was analyzed by C index and calibration curves. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the scoring system and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. Overall survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier curve amongst different risk AEG patients. RESULTS Multivariate analysis showed that TNM stage (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.286, P = 0.008), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 2.979, P = 0.001), and body mass index (HR = 0.626, P = 0.026) were independent prognostic factors. The new scoring system had a higher concordance index (0.697), and the calibration curves of the nomogram were reliable. The area under the ROC curve of the new score model (3-year: 0.725, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.676-0.777; 5-year: 0.758, 95%CI: 0.708-0.807) was larger than that of TNM staging (3-year: 0.630, 95%CI: 0.585-0.684; 5-year: 0.665, 95%CI: 0.616-0.715). CONCLUSION Based on the serum markers and other clinical indicators, we have developed a precise model to predict the prognosis of patients with AEG (types II and III). The new prognostic nomogram could effectively enhance the predictive value of the TNM staging system. This scoring system can be advantageous and helpful for surgeons and patients.

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出版当年[2023]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学 4 区 外科
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学 4 区 外科
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出版当年[2022]版:
Q3 SURGERY Q4 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 SURGERY Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2022版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2021版] 出版后一年[2023版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China [*1]Department of General Surgery, The FirstAffiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District,Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China
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